International films have made it to top honors at the Academy Awards. Witness Parasite (South Korea), 2020 Best Picture. This year, on the Best Picture nomination list, The Secret Agent (Brazil) and Sentimental Value (Norway) have each taken victory laps at the Golden Globes, New York Film Critics Circle, Gotham Awards, and with other esteemed groups for Best International film. 

Other top distinctions have included Best Director for Iranian Jafar Panahi (It Was Just An Accident, from France) –until now. Among international directors, Sentimental Value director Joachim Triet made the cut, alongside his castmembers, Best Supporting Actor nominee Stellan Skarsgard and a Best Actress nod for Renate Reinsve. Best Actor recognition for Brazilian Wagner Moura, whose director Kleber Mendonca Filho created the role with this superstar in mind, seemed a no brainer; he’s swept the season. While predictions are always betting odds, here’s my take:

For Best Picture, on this year’s stellar roster of nominations, One Battle vs. Sinners—that’s the race. To give The Secret Agent its due, I predict this film will take Best International Feature. As to Wagner Moura for Best Actor, it would be hard to beat the frontrunners Timothee Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan. That’s the race.